Published: Mon, June 19, 2017
Global Media | By Meredith Barber

Tropical development in Gulf becomes more likely in coming days

Tropical development in Gulf becomes more likely in coming days

NWS expects continued gradual development in the area as the system moves slowly northwest across Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula over the remainder of the weekend.

Two tropical disturbances brewing in the Tropics were given greater odds of swirling into tropical cyclones next week, forecasters with the National Hurricane Center said Saturday.

"Before the storm develops, it's pretty hard to determine where the system will move", said Nikki Hathaway, meteorologist for the National Weather Service's Houston-Galveston office.

As far as intensity and local impacts are concerned, right now the overall consensus is this will not be a strong system if it develops into something tropical. The heavy rain fall, and localized flooding possibility, would be the primary impact.

The odds are still increasing that a tropical depression or storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

While forecast models are fairly uniformed on the development of a weak system, where it goes is still much less certain.

A second tropical wave (#1 on map) continued to track westward across the central Atlantic on Sunday morning and may get its own visit from the Hurricane Hunters on Monday.

At 5 p.m., the centre of the system was located near 7.5°N 50.4°W at or about 815 miles east-southeast of the Windward islands.

If a tropical storm were to form there, it would be a first.

Increased seas, heavy rain and locally gusty winds are expected to be the main threats from this potential tropical cyclone in the Windward Islands.

Last June was an outlier, when Bonnie, Colin and Danielle all spun through the Atlantic Basin as tropical storms.

If this does strengthen we need to watch it closely, especially if the system starts to track north-northeast.

The issuance of forecast cones and advisories before a system receives a name is something new for this hurricane season by the NHC.

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